czwartek, 24 października 2013

#11 Wykres dnia: "It's tomorrow's problem"

źródło: businessinsider.pl za Nomura Research
Powyższy wykres jest autorstwa pana Richarda Koo, głównego ekonomisty Nomura Research. A poniżej jego komentarz:


The QE "trap" happens when the central bank has purchased long-term government bonds as part of quantitative easing. Initially, long-term interest rates fall much more than they would in a country without such a policy, which means the subsequent economic recovery comes sooner (t1). But as the economy picks up, long-term rates rise sharply as local bond market participants fear the central bank will have to mop up all the excess reserves by unloading its holdings of long-term bonds.

Demand then falls in interest rate sensitive sectors such as automobiles and housing, causing the economy to slow and forcing the central bank to relax its policy stance. The economy heads towards recovery again, but as market participants refocus on the possibility of the central bank absorbing excess reserves, long-term rates surge in a repetitive cycle I have dubbed the QE "trap."

In countries that do not engage in quantitative easing, meanwhile, the decline in long-term rates is more gradual, which delays the start of the recovery (t2). But since there is no need for the central bank to mop up large quantities of funds, everybody is no more relaxed once the recovery starts, and the rise in long-term rates is far more gradual. Once the economy starts to turn around, the pace of recovery is actually faster because interest rates are lower.

Rynki oczywiście z wydłużania QE się cieszą, ponieważ horyzont inwestycyjny rynków finansowych jest co do zasady krótki. W długim okresie QE może wywołać naprawdę duży problem, który obecnie jest ignorowany, dlatego że nikt nie ma ochoty się nim zajmować teraz, kiedy indeksy rosną...

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